The analysis suggests that the four-year having cycle might not have predictive power in timing or pricing due to Bitcoin entering a different era, following macro liquidity cycles.1. Timing: The four-year having cycle might not accurately predict the timing of bull market tops.2. Pricing: The average 80% drop in bear markets is unlikely to happen in the future.A bear market would look like a move from 126,000 to 92,000-89,753 or 53,000, with likely price movement to 118,000 in the next 2 weeks. As of October 23, 2025, the speaker is predicting a rally towards 118,000.The analysis shows Elliott Wave structures. With a target of $92,442 or $89,753 if the Elliot Wave is valid. Also suggests that that a level of resistance exists at 117,000. The analysis implies that a failure of $73,703 would invalidate the analysis.