The monthly labor report (NFP) came in below expectations on Friday, September 5, 2025, sparking fears of a U.S. recession. Are market participants starting to show a preference for bonds over stocks? What do these types of shifts typically mean for the stock market and economy?
1 extracted signal · 1 resolved · 0 still active
CiovaccoCapital06 Sept 2025, 06:03 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The video analyzes the IEF 7-10 year Treasury bond ETF to assess whether it's time to dump stocks and buy bonds. The analysis points that IEF is attempting a breakout since March 2022. Market participants are showing concerns about economic growth, with recent price action showing IEF trending upwards, an effort to break out of the box. The question remains as to whether debt, inflation or economic growth has shifted radically. With a breakout to the upside a primary question is are earnings and economic growth about to roll over? An uptrend doesn't align with inflation concerns. The relative performance of stocks and bonds can help answer the question. A look into the stock market peak in 2000 indicates an inverse correlation for VUSTX vs VFINX, the long term treasuries vs stocks fund. In present day relative to SPY it's not about how bonds are acting in isolation. Pre-monthly labor report IEF relative to SPY. Post Labor report IEF 7-10 year treasury bond ETF is 96.83. Market Wizards quote from Martin Schwarts. Focus is on relative trends in bond versus stock ratios. S&P is still near the peak, 49% from the all time high low.
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