SCHD Is Up 34% in a Year : Is It Too Late to Buy?

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The video analyzes the SCHD ETF, highlighting its recent performance and historical data to inform investment decisions. Over the past year, SCHD has shown a significant gain of 34.1%, reaching an all-time closing high of $35.78. Despite this strong performance, the analysis contrasts the yield on cost for a buyer from a year ago (3.95% at $26.68) versus a buyer today (2.95% at $35.78), indicating a lower yield for current investors due to the price appreciation. A hypothetical backtest for SCHD from Oct 2011 to Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested, shows that 82.6% of the time, the ETF was higher one year after a record high, and 100% of the time higher after three years. For the S&P 500, buying at a record high historically resulted in a 73.7% chance of a gain one year later, compared to 74.6% for any day, with an average 1-year gain of +8.8% versus +9.4%. The analysis also tests lump sum vs. dollar-cost averaging (DCA), finding that lump sum investing generally outperformed DCA, especially for SCHD, where it won 83% of the time with an average lead of 5.5% after one year. For SPY, lump sum won 79% of the time. The core message emphasizes that 'too late' is about the yield one can live with and the holding period, not just the price. The analysis suggests that while current yields are lower than historical ones, the long-term growth potential and historical data support continued investment.

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