SoFi to $30? The ONE Buried Earnings Number Changes Everything.
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Joey @ChartEquityIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 27 Oct 2026, 18:21 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 27 Oct 2026, 22:10 UTC
AI-generated source summary
SoFi's Q3 2026 earnings report revealed strong performance across several key metrics. Adjusted net revenue grew 44% year-over-year to a record $1.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 70% to nearly $470 million, indicating profit growth faster than sales. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) saw significant growth, reaching $0.18 in Q3 2026, up from $0.11 a year prior, representing a 64% increase. Management has raised its full-year guidance, projecting adjusted net revenue of approximately $5.04 billion (40% growth) and adjusted EPS of 61 cents for 2026. For 2027, management expects adjusted net revenue of $6.4 billion (27% growth) and adjusted EPS of 90 cents. The analysis suggests a bullish case for SoFi, targeting $30 per share, which implies a forward P/E ratio of approximately 33x based on the 2027 EPS forecast. This valuation is supported by the company's consistent member and product growth, with 1.2 million new members added in Q3 2026 and total members reaching 17.1 million. Furthermore, 51% of new products were opened by existing members, indicating strong customer engagement and cross-selling opportunities. The lower charge-off rate of 2.26% compared to the previous year also supports credit quality. However, the bear case highlights the potential risks, including an elevated forward P/E ratio of 46 compared to competitors like Block (27x) and PayPal (11.5x), and the fact that the $30 target relies on the company hitting its aggressive 2027 EPS forecast of 90 cents and maintaining a premium valuation multiple.
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Joey @ChartEquity
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