SPCX Stock: The Largest Neocloud? Valuing SPCX on EV/GP/RG. Too Cheap? Big Growth Goals v. NBIS/IREN

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The analysis of SpaceX (SPCX) focuses on its financial valuation, particularly its revenue growth and future projections. The presenter uses a "Neocloud" framework, treating Q3 2026 revenue of $14.6 billion as an ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) number, which extrapolates to $58.3 billion based on a 4x multiplier. This ARR is then used to project future annual revenue. The presenter utilizes current Gross Margin (57%) and Adj EBITDA margins (37%) to forecast future performance. Two main scenarios are presented: one based on JP Morgan's forecast of $400 billion ARR for Q4 2027, implying $100 billion for Q4 itself, leading to a total ARR projection of $340 billion and a projected growth of +483% from the current $58.3 billion. The second scenario uses the midpoint of SpaceX's own guidance ($35 billion for Q1 2027), projecting $135 billion for Q3 2027 and $536 billion ARR for Q4 2027, an estimated +819% growth from $58.3 billion. The analysis highlights that even achieving JP Morgan's lower growth estimate ($340B ARR) makes SpaceX look cheap at its current price, especially considering its growth rate. However, risks are noted, including potential government nationalization discussions, random rocket failures, stock unlock events, and a potential TSLA acquisition premium impacting the stock price negatively. The comparison with other companies like NBIX, IREN, and CRW indicates that SPCX's valuation metrics might be more favorable in terms of growth potential, despite higher EV/EBITDA multiples.

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