After 1929, 2000 and 2008: Is the Next Big Crash Coming?

AI-generated source summary

The analysis suggests that the long-term bull market, particularly in US indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100, is likely in its final stages, possibly in the last leg of a massive wave 5. Historical data dating back to 1932 shows significant growth, but the current uptrend exhibits signs of exhaustion. Recent pullbacks of 15% or more, which have occurred 15 times since 1950 on average every five years, are noted. The latest such pullback in April 2025 was almost -19%, and historically, the market has recovered to new highs after these events. However, the increasing volatility, exemplified by the VIX reaching its highest level since June, and the weakening price action in Nasdaq 100, suggests increased risk. A break below critical support levels, such as the March low for SPX500 at 6,313, would signal a major top and potentially usher in a significant bear market. The current trend is seen as an aggressive but choppy uptrend within a channel, with potential for one last high before a major correction. The analysis highlights that while minor pullbacks are normal, a drop below the March low at 6,313 would be a serious warning sign. The long-term weekly and monthly charts suggest the overall trend remains bullish, but the recent price action indicates a potential shift or at least increased risk of a significant correction.

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