Is the Money Coming Back for Bitcoin?
1 extracted signal · 0 resolved · 1 still active
More Crypto OnlineIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 18 Oct 2026, 03:55 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 18 Oct 2026, 07:40 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The analysis discusses Bitcoin's price action in relation to global money supply and Fed policy. The global M2 money supply has reached an all-time high, currently around $123.9 trillion, showing a 7% year-on-year growth. Historically, periods of fast money growth (over 5% per year) have led to Bitcoin appreciation, with a median gain of +6% in the subsequent three months. Conversely, slower money growth (less than 5%) has seen Bitcoin gain 85% median. The analysis highlights that the current rally's strength is questionable due to a single jump in August, with recent money growth easing and the dollar strengthening, which is generally bearish for Bitcoin. The Fed's recent rate hike to 3.75%-4.00% and balance sheet expansion also point to tightening liquidity. A key turning point is observed around a 7% money growth rate, below which the signal historically turns negative. The current situation presents a mixed signal, with ongoing corrective price action in Bitcoin on the daily chart, while the monthly chart suggests a potential bullish wave 4 or a broader corrective wave (C) from a higher degree ABC pattern. The immediate short-term outlook suggests Bitcoin is consolidating in a support zone between $77,000 and $80,000, with resistance near $85,000-$86,000. A break above this resistance could signal a move towards the previous highs, while a break below the support may lead to further downside. The analysis points to key dates in late October and November for potential market shifts, including Fed decisions and Bitcoin's monthly close.
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