S&P 500 Will Be Cheap in 2028 With a P/E of 15!!!
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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.Independent analyst profile- Source published
- 09 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 09 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The analysis projects that the S&P 500 will reach 12,200 points by 2028, representing a 56% return from the current level of 7818.93. This projection is based on an assumption that earnings will grow to 200, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio will normalize to 15. The current P/E ratio is approximately 26.68, with a historical mean of 16.23 and median of 15.08. The analysis suggests that a P/E of 15 is historically fair. Alternatively, if AI works like a commodity and decreases costs, it could lead to lower earnings of 200 and a P/E of 15, resulting in a S&P 500 level of 3000 by 2028, which represents a 60% decline. The primary bullish case suggests buying at the 2028 target of 12,200, while the bearish scenario suggests buying at 3000, implying significant market contraction. The current trend is assessed as bullish.
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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.
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