БИТКОИН (BTC) БУДЕТ 30К УЖЕ В ЭТОМ ГОДУ

AI-generated source summary

The analysis is based on Bitcoin's historical price cycles, specifically the four-year rhythm around halving events. The presenter argues that past cycles, characterized by significant drops (around 80%), suggest a similar pattern may unfold. The 2018-2019 cycle saw an 84% drop from $19,600 to $3,100. The 2021-2022 cycle saw a 77% drop from $69,000 to $16,000. Applying similar percentages to the current cycle's high of $125,000 suggests potential targets of $29,000 (-77%) or $20,000 (-84%). However, the presenter also notes a potential decrease in the amplitude of these drops, suggesting a possible downside to around 70%, which would place the target around $37,500. This target is further supported by the comparison of the current chart structure to the 2021-2022 cycle, indicating a similar pattern of highs and lows. The presenter believes the market is currently in a bearish phase, with ample reasons for further decline due to factors like institutional outflows, geopolitical events affecting oil prices and inflation, high interest rates, and a rotation out of risk assets like crypto into tech stocks. The cyclical timing suggests that the true bottom may not be reached until late 2026. The current price is approximately $62,000, with a target entry zone around $37,500. The fail bound for this bearish outlook is set at $70,000, indicating that a sustained move above this level would invalidate the bearish thesis.

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