Does Bitcoin Actually Follow the Business Cycle? (I Tested 15 Years)

AI-generated source summary

The video presents a technical analysis questioning the correlation between the business cycle (measured by PMI) and Bitcoin's price movements over the last 15 years. The analysis indicates a very weak correlation (0.04 overall, and -0.2 when considering raw lines from 2014-2021). Year-over-year analysis reveals frequent flips between positive and negative correlations, suggesting noise rather than a reliable link. The presenter argues that Bitcoin's major price movements, particularly the 8x run from $16k to $126k between 2022-2025 (during an economic contraction) and the anticipated top in October 2025, move opposite to the economy's predicted path. The "honest test" of comparing actual monthly moves shows a random cloud with a low correlation score. The "rolling match score" over 15 years fluctuates wildly between strong positive and strong negative correlations, demonstrating instability. The analysis concludes that the business cycle is not a reliable driver for Bitcoin and that the halving cycle is a more consistent factor. The presenter highlights that while the economy was shrinking, Bitcoin experienced significant growth, and vice-versa, further negating a direct business cycle influence. The current market example shows the economy going green (up) while Bitcoin is down ~30% in the same months, indicating opposite directions.

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