🔵 Bitcoin vs Business Cycle (ISM's PMI) Explains Why No Blow-off Top, No Euphoria and No Altseason
1 extracted signal · 1 resolved · 0 still active
Colin Talks CryptoIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 25 Nov 2025, 14:01 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 30 Sept 2026, 08:06 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The video analyzes the correlation between Bitcoin's price cycles and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Historically, Bitcoin bull cycles have often coincided with periods where the ISM PMI was above 52, a condition not met in the current cycle, which might explain the lack of widespread euphoria. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index is also presented as a potential leading indicator, showing a sharper rebound post-pandemic compared to the PMI. The analysis suggests that while previous 4-year cycles in crypto have been linked to timing models that might now be broken, the ISM's current upward trajectory could indicate a potential continuation of the bull market, albeit possibly with less volatility and a longer, less parabolic upward trend than previously observed. The author's current strategy is to hold a significant Bitcoin position (66%) and observe the developing patterns, anticipating a potential relief rally followed by a milder bear market if the ISM continues its ascent.
AI-generated summary based on the source content.
Signal outcomes at a glance
Evaluation CompleteSignals in this source
Evidence and evaluation progress
- Original source published
The analyst published the original source item.
- Source recorded by Tahlil Plus
The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.
- Market predictions extracted
1 eligible signal linked to this case.
- Source processing completed
Source analysis and structured extraction completed.
- Outcome tracking started
Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.
- First prediction resolved
The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.
- Case evaluation completed
All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.
Colin Talks Crypto
Platform-wide history, separate from this source evaluation.
Tahlil Plus independently records and evaluates public market predictions. Extraction may be AI-assisted and results follow the Tahlil Plus methodology. This information is not financial advice.