CEOs Are Preparing For The Next CRASH, Watch Gold (it started…)

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The analysis focuses on insider buying trends within the S&P 500, contrasting current activity with historical data, particularly the 2008 crash period. Data from Q3 2026 (thru mid-Sep) indicates that 10.4% of S&P 500 companies have seen at least one insider buy, representing a significant drop from the 33% observed during the 2008 crash. The total dollar amount of insider buying in Q3 2026 is $1.5 billion, with Bill Gates and Cascade accounting for $1.416 billion, meaning 94% of the total insider buy volume came from a single buyer. Excluding this large transaction, the remaining insider buying amounts to $84 million, distributed across other companies. This current level of insider buying is noted as being low, even lower than in 2008 when the market was in a severe downturn. The research suggests that while insider sales have historically had little predictive power, insider purchases are highly informative and tend to outperform the market by approximately 6% per year. The current low level of insider buying activity, especially from the largest companies, is contrasted with record-high stock buyback announcements, suggesting a potential disconnect and a signal that large-cap stocks may be overvalued or not seen as cheap by insiders. The analysis highlights that insider buying is a strong signal for future market movements when they occur, but the current dearth of such activity, particularly among the largest companies, is a concern.

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