Friends! In this video, I'm going to do a Duolingo stock analysis & discuss the risks and upside potential of DUOL stock

AI-generated source summary

The video discusses Duolingo's stock performance, noting it has declined 41% over the past two months but remains up 50% over the last year. The speaker revisits a previous valuation, where he considered the stock overvalued at $370, with a fair value around $291. Currently, the stock is trading near $316. The analysis addresses Google Translate's new language learning tools as a potential threat, emphasizing that Duolingo's strength lies in its gamified, social learning experience. The financial metrics are provided: 41% revenue growth, 41% total bookings growth, 84% net income increase and 31.2 adjusted EBITDA margin. A chess course has over a million users. Monthly active users at 128.3 million, with daily active users at 47.7 million. Advertising revenue for the last quarter was $26.6 million. The company's net income margin is around 31%. The speaker also shows valuation model numbers using a 43 PE ratio targeting a price point of $582.66, with 84% upside potential.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   27 Aug 2025, 22:16 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. First prediction resolved

   29 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

3. Case evaluation completed

   29 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.

4. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

5. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:47 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

6. Outcome tracking started

   02 Jul 2026, 02:10 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.