This Will Be MUCH BIGGER Than Nvidia

AI-generated source summary

The analysis breaks down the memory market into seven layers, identifying key players and their roles. The 'makers' layer, including MU, SKHY, and SNDK, is presented as having strong fundamentals and significant year-to-date gains, despite some being off their June highs. The 'storage' layer features SNDK, WDC, and KIOXIA, with the latter two being intertwined and focusing on high-capacity data center drives. The 'tools' layer, including LRCX, AMAT, and KLAC, are described as essential for manufacturing, with companies like LRCX seeing strong revenue growth due to HBM demand. The 'test & packaging' layer highlights companies like TER, FORM, and BES, crucial for ensuring chip quality, especially for HBM stacks. The 'interface & IP' layer features RAMB and ALAB, providing critical components and connectivity. The 'assemblers & ETFs' layer includes DELL, which builds servers, and two ETFs (DRAM and HBMX) offering exposure to the makers. Finally, the 'small ones' layer focuses on niche players like SIMO, ATOM, NLST, and MRAN, which offer high potential but also high risk. The valuation analysis indicates that the 'makers' (SKHY, MU, SNDK) are the cheapest on forward earnings, trading at 4x-8x, while 'tools and test' companies trade at a premium (17x-37x). The overall conclusion is that the top-dog makers still represent the best long-term buys, while smaller names at higher multiples are more suited for shorter-term trades around catalysts.

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