The September Crypto Forecast Doesn't Change My Outlook
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Aaron Dishner aka Moonin PapaIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 06 Sept 2026, 00:30 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 06 Sept 2026, 01:52 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The analysis focuses on the historical performance and potential future movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum, referencing the total market cap charts excluding stablecoins and the top 50 and top 100 crypto market caps. The speaker notes that while past bear market cycles have shown significant downturns, the beginning of the year (January through May) historically presents stronger returns for Bitcoin and Ethereum compared to later months. Specifically, Bitcoin's early year performance is highlighted as strong, with potential targets around 78182, and a failure bound below 62158, despite current bearish price action. Ethereum also shows similar early-year strength with potential targets around 3000, failing below 1800. The total market cap excluding stablecoins and the top 50/100 crypto market caps also show promising early-year performance, suggesting a potential recovery. However, the speaker cautions about the late year performance, specifically November and December, which historically tend to be weaker for crypto assets, and the total market cap. The analysis also touches on the concept of 'cycle degradation,' where newer cycles tend to underperform older ones, especially in the case of altcoins, but emphasizes that focusing on established coins might be a more prudent strategy. The general sentiment suggests a potential recovery in the coming months, but with caution advised due to historical volatility.
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Aaron Dishner aka Moonin Papa
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