Newmont Made $2.2B, Barrick Made $515M. Here's What That Tells You #Gold #Mining #Stocks

AI-generated source summary

The analysis focuses on gold miners, specifically comparing Barrick Gold (BARRICK) and Newmont (NEWMONT), and the GDX ETF. The speaker suggests Barrick is currently underperforming, citing its high capital expenditure of $1.19 billion last year, with $654 million going into projects rather than maintaining existing operations. In contrast, Newmont is presented as a leader, consistently generating significant free cash flow ($2.2 billion) and being recognized for its operational efficiency. The speaker notes that Barrick's capital was spent on new projects, while Newmont generated substantial cash from existing mines. The GDX ETF, which includes both Barrick and Newmont, is viewed positively. The speaker mentions calling a bottom on GDX around $70, with it now trading at $97-$98, suggesting a strong bullish outlook. The strategy recommended is to own GDX as a core holding for directional exposure to gold miners, rather than picking individual stocks, due to its diversified nature and the speaker's belief in higher gold prices. The current price of GDX is approximately $97.50, with a target of $110.00, and a failure bound at $70.00. Newmont is seen as bullish with a target of $50.00 and a fail bound at $35.00. Barrick, however, is viewed as bearish in its current execution, with a hypothetical target around $18.00 and a failure bound at $25.00, implying a view that its stock may decline relative to Newmont or the broader GDX.

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