NVIDIA Earnings: Are You Ready For The Move?

AI-generated source summary

The analysis focuses on NVIDIA's (NVDA) earnings performance and its implications for the stock's price movement. Historically, for the past eight quarters, NVDA has shown an average pre-earnings rally of 7.0% and a subsequent post-earnings decline of 5.8% over an 8-day period. The video highlights that the market may already be pricing in a significant sequential jump in revenue, with the current consensus for Q3 revenue at $103.8 billion, representing a 16% increase year-over-year. However, the presenter emphasizes that revenue growth alone might not be sufficient if the pace of acceleration slows. The key for future performance is the guidance on demand, particularly for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). NVIDIA's current generation GPUs use 192 GB of HBM per GPU, and the next generation (Vera Rubin) is expected to use 288 GB, a 50% increase. The company has already supplied $1 billion of HBM3 for these next-gen GPUs, which could lead to $125 billion in AI data center financing. The critical factor for investors to watch is whether NVIDIA maintains its guidance for accelerated demand, which is currently priced in. If guidance suggests demand is exceeding supply and the company can maintain margins, the stock could break above $220. Conversely, if demand falters or supply constraints become evident, the stock could fall back into a range, potentially testing the $200 level. The presenter suggests that positive guidance on HBM supply and demand will be the primary catalyst for further upside.

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