Zoom Runs Ahead of Anthropic's 2T IPO? Why ZM Stock Is My Favorite AI LLM Proxy (Better than AMZN?)

AI-generated source summary

The analysis focuses on Zoom Communications (ZM) as a proxy play for Anthropic. The current market price of ZM is $107.43. The presenter's spreadsheet penalizes ZM for 4% NTM sales growth, yet considers it reasonable for a value investor with a PE of 17 and Adjusted EBITDA growth of +35%. More importantly, ZM has a market cap of $31 billion but an enterprise value of $23 billion, indicating significant cash reserves on the balance sheet. Zoom's ownership stake in Anthropic is estimated to be 1.2% from 2023 Series C funding, though this has been diluted by subsequent funding rounds, with current estimates ranging from 1.1% to 0.8%. Zoom's carrying value for Anthropic on its books is $1.2 billion. The presenter projects a 78% upside if ZM's stake in Anthropic becomes a $2 trillion valuation, leading to a new EV of $41 billion, which is considered a fair price without the Anthropic stake. The presenter believes that the market is undervaluing ZM's stake in Anthropic, citing the company's potential for growth and the significant upside if Anthropic's valuation increases. The analysis suggests a target price of $135, with a failure bound of $95, implying a bullish outlook on ZM.

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