Bitcoin’s bear markets follow a repeatable pattern, and in this video, we’re breaking down the on-chain signals that reveal when the bottom is forming, how long Bitcoin typically spends there, and the key price levels to watch.

AI-generated source summary

The analysis focuses on two key on-chain metrics: the short-term holder realized price and the long-term holder realized price, as well as the percentage of Bitcoin supply in loss. Historically, bear markets have seen these metrics converge, with the percentage of supply in loss peaking around 50% at the market bottom. The current price action suggests a potential shift towards accumulation as more supply is held by long-term holders. Projections indicate a potential crossover of these metrics within the next 3-5 months, with a projected bottom potentially forming between $55k-$65k if historical patterns hold.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   08 Apr 2026, 20:30 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:24 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:48 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   18 Jul 2026, 05:12 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. First prediction resolved

   18 Jul 2026, 05:12 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

6. Case evaluation completed

   18 Jul 2026, 05:12 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.