Prediction Case File
YouTubePartially Resolved

14-Year Head-to-Head: SCHD vs S&P 500

2 extracted signals · 1 resolved · 1 still active

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Source published
28 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC
Recorded by Tahlil Plus
20 Jul 2026, 14:13 UTC
Video preview for 14-Year Head-to-Head: SCHD vs S&P 500
Source overview

AI-generated source summary

The video compares the historical performance of SCHD and the S&P 500 (represented by SPY) over a 14-year period, starting from October 2011. Both funds started with an initial investment of $100,000. SCHD, a dividend-focused ETF, commenced trading at $8.50 per share and grew to $30.98 by April 2026, yielding a share price return of +264.5%. It paid out approximately $102,706 in dividends during this period. The final value of SCHD with reinvested dividends reached $572,889, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.80%. In contrast, the S&P 500 (SPY) started at $125.50 and ended at $704.08, resulting in a higher share price return of +461.0%. SPY paid out approximately $60,424 in dividends, leading to a final value of $722,549 and a CAGR of 14.62%. While SCHD's total return CAGR was lower by 1.82 percentage points compared to SPY's, the analysis highlights SCHD's strength in defensive sectors and its performance during market downturns, such as in 2022 when it lost only -3% compared to SPY's -18.3%. The valuation metrics show SCHD trading at a lower Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 16-17x compared to the S&P 500's 24-26x, suggesting cheaper earnings. The comparison underscores that SCHD's total return is significantly driven by dividend reinvestment, which closed a substantial portion of the gap with the S&P 500 in terms of total return.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Live evaluation

Signal outcomes at a glance

Partially Resolved
Signals
2
Extracted from this source
Open
1
Still being tracked
Successful
1
Resolved successfully
Failed
0
Resolved unsuccessfully
Other
0
Cancelled, invalid or excluded
Resolved success
100%
1 resolved; open signals omitted
Extracted intelligence

Signals in this source

Case timeline

Evidence and evaluation progress

  1. Original source published

    The analyst published the original source item.

  2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

    The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

  3. Market predictions extracted

    2 eligible signals linked to this case.

  4. Outcome tracking started

    Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

  5. Source processing completed

    Source analysis and structured extraction completed.

  6. First prediction resolved

    The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

  7. Live evaluation in progress

    1 signal remains active.

Analyst snapshot

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Platform-wide history, separate from this source evaluation.

Reliability
84.3
Tracked signals
10
Historical success
100.0%
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Methodology & disclosure

Tahlil Plus independently records and evaluates public market predictions. Extraction may be AI-assisted and results follow the Tahlil Plus methodology. This information is not financial advice.

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