Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Prediction and Forecast [TSM]

AI-generated source summary

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) has been assigned a 'Hold/Accumulate' rating since December 18, 2025, yielding a 15.00% gain over 23 days, with an average daily gain of 0.65%. The stock is within a robust short-term upward trend, with a projected 12.32% change over the next three months, ranging from a 0.09% decrease to an 18.11% increase. The 12-month forecast anticipates an 88.55% change, with prices potentially ranging between $508 and $649. On the last trading day, January 22, 2026, TSM closed at $327.37, experiencing a 0.383% increase, with fluctuations of 2.49%. Volume decreased by 4 million shares, totaling 13 million shares exchanged, valued at approximately $4.09 billion. The 52-week high was $351.33, and the low was $134.25, with the current price 6.82% below the 52-week high. News indicates TSM's central role in the AI supply chain, with management raising capex guidance to $52-56 billion in 2025 and projecting a multi-year AI-driven expansion through 2028 and beyond. Revenue is expected to grow at a 25% CAGR into 2029 for AI data centers, with margin expansion towards the mid-60s by 2026. Analyst ratings are mixed, with Cowen & Co. issuing a 'Hold', Barclays an 'Overweight', Raymond James a 'Market Perform', and Bank of America Securities and Needham both 'Buy', all with a 'Hold' action. The general rating is 'Neutral' (B+), with 'Strong Buy' on Return on Equity and Return on Asset, but 'Sell' on P/E ratio (26.57) and 'Strong Sell' on Price to Book. Technical signals indicate a sell from the short-term Moving Average and a buy from the long-term Moving Average, with the short-term average positioned above the long-term average, suggesting a general buy signal. Resistance is noted at $331.86, and support at $308.40. A MACD buy signal is present. A divergence between volume and price (volume fell despite gaining prices) is identified as an early warning. A sell signal from a pivot top on January 16, 2026, has led to a 4.39% decline. Weekly volatility is 3.20%, with a medium risk assessment. Support and resistance levels are $327.16 and $327.43, respectively. The next earnings report is anticipated on April 16, 2026, with consensus estimates at $3.02. The current price is considered undervalued. The suggested stop-loss is $311.94, representing a 4.71% decline from the current price.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   23 Jan 2026, 05:04 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:48 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   19 May 2026, 02:08 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. Live evaluation in progress

   01 Aug 2026, 01:57 UTC

   1 signal remains active.