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AI-generated source summary

The analysis indicates that Bitcoin has completed an impulsive Wave 1 bull run, reaching an expected all-time high of approximately 123,485.63, and is now in a corrective Wave 2 phase. This correction is unfolding as an expanding flat ABC pattern, with Wave B potentially forming a complex structure involving a zigzag and an X wave. The current price movement has exited the base channel, suggesting a potential weakness for the bears if it ranges. However, a return to the base channel and impulsive movement within it could signal a Wave 5 unfolding as a double 1-2, leading to a Wave 3, Wave 4, and a final Wave 5 downwards. A new, higher-priority scenario suggests a WXY complex correction for Wave 2, potentially leading to a deeper dive. This involves a W wave, an X wave, and a Y wave as another zigzag, targeting the 0.382 to 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels, specifically around 56,568 to 44,024 USD. This deep correction, if confirmed, would then set the stage for a massive Wave 3 to the upside. An alternative bearish diagonal pattern for Wave 2, involving a 0.382 Fib level as a common target, is also considered. The bullish scenario, requiring a break above 99,725.11, is currently deemed a low probability. The current market action appears to be setting up for a further downside impulse, with specific Fibonacci levels in the 67,900 to 74,500 range and deeper towards 55,000 to 44,000 USD highlighted as potential targets for the completion of the corrective phase. The invalidation of the bearish outlook is set at 99,677.12.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   08 Jan 2026, 14:55 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:48 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   19 May 2026, 02:08 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. First prediction resolved

   03 Jul 2026, 09:17 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

6. Case evaluation completed

   03 Jul 2026, 09:17 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.