Is the legendary 4-Year Cycle officially over? Bitcoin’s recent performance has left investors confused and frustrated, with no blow-off top in sight and a December downturn instead of a moonshot.

AI-generated source summary

The video discusses how the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle might be broken, replaced by a liquidity-driven cycle influenced by institutional investors and Federal Reserve monetary policy. While past cycles saw predictable booms and busts tied to halvings, current market conditions, including quantitative tightening by the Fed and the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, suggest a potentially longer, less volatile, but still bullish trend. On-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-score indicate a mid-cycle correction rather than a bear market. The key takeaway is to monitor liquidity indicators like the Fed's balance sheet and global M2 supply, as these are now the primary drivers of Bitcoin's price action, potentially leading to significant gains in 2026 if liquidity expansion occurs.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   02 Jan 2026, 19:01 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:48 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   27 Jul 2026, 06:29 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. First prediction resolved

   27 Jul 2026, 06:29 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

6. Case evaluation completed

   27 Jul 2026, 06:29 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.