In this week’s SMC outlook, I break down market structure, BoS and CHoCH, fair value gaps, and key imbalance levels on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and gold so you know exactly what matters heading into thin holiday liquidity.

AI-generated source summary

Market conditions are currently quiet, indicative of the mid to late December holiday season, leading to illiquid conditions. For DXY, recent hourly close below the last external low suggests an hourly change of character. However, considering the larger external structure, the current upward movement could be corrective within a broader downtrend. A daily fair value gap at 98.954 is identified as a potential target. A close above the external high at 99.333 would invalidate the larger bearish bias, but for a short-term bullish move to the FVG, a break below 96.000 would invalidate. For EURUSD, despite recent internal bearish tendencies, the overall 4-hour and daily timeframes show a bullish change of character. The market is expected to pull back into a discount zone or unmitigated daily fair value gap around 1.16001 before potentially resuming a bullish move. A short-term bearish trade targeting the daily FVG at 1.16001 would be invalidated if the price moves above 1.17500. GBPUSD exhibits a technically bearish outlook after taking internal liquidity and forming an hourly change of character below the external low. Potential targets include the single prints and large imbalance around 1.32000. A move above the external high at 1.34500 would negate the bearish stance. Gold (XAUUSD) remains in a bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. However, it currently trades in a premium zone, making buying opportunities unfavorable. A significant pullback into the discount zone, specifically the daily fair value gap around 4238.785, would be necessary to consider long positions. A break below 4100.000 would invalidate the bullish structure.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   21 Dec 2025, 19:12 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. First prediction resolved

   22 Dec 2025, 13:00 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

3. Case evaluation completed

   08 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.

4. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

5. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:48 UTC

   3 eligible signals linked to this case.

6. Outcome tracking started

   02 Jul 2026, 01:22 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.