We know the 4 year cycle for Bitcoin. Down for a year, sideways for a year, slow grind up for a year, finally a year long mega bull market. What if I told you that we ALREADY have headed lower for a year! But only when priced in GOLD! Let’s check the charts!

AI-generated source summary

The video discusses Bitcoin's 4-year cycle and its performance relative to gold. Historical data suggests that bear markets in Bitcoin against gold typically last for about a year, followed by a growth phase and then another bear market. The analysis highlights that in past bear markets (2014 and 2018), Bitcoin experienced significant drawdowns against gold (-87% and -83% respectively). The presenter extrapolates this pattern to the 2022 bear market, suggesting a potential drawdown of -75% against gold, which is 8% less than previous cycles. For the potential 2025 bear market, the projection is a -50% drawdown against gold, or 16% less than the previous, resulting in a price of $174,086 per Bitcoin if gold maintains its current all-time high. The presenter believes that if Bitcoin's performance against gold is considered, the bear market may already be over, with potential for significant upside.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   06 Dec 2025, 21:32 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:48 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   19 May 2026, 02:08 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. First prediction resolved

   03 Jul 2026, 06:17 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

6. Case evaluation completed

   03 Jul 2026, 06:17 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.