Deezy checks the data surrounding the Fed’s recent pivot. Quantitative tightening is over and the Fed balance sheet will soon rise. But how soon and what effect will it have on ETH?

AI-generated source summary

The analysis projects a significant bullish reversal for Ethereum, targeting $5,000 in Q1 2026. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental and technical indicators. Fundamentally, the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed Chair is anticipated to lead to aggressive interest rate cuts, thereby increasing liquidity for risk assets. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve concluded its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2025, after a 3.5-year period that reduced its balance sheet by $2.4 trillion. Historically, the cessation of QT has preceded periods of increased market liquidity, as exemplified by a 4,000% gain in Ethereum after the previous QT cycle, which was followed by Quantitative Easing. Technically, the monthly MACD histogram for altcoin dominance versus Bitcoin dominance has turned bullish, suggesting the onset of a multi-year altcoin season, a period typically characterized by altcoins outperforming Bitcoin with an average pump of 340%. On the daily chart, Ethereum is observed breaking out of a multi-month downtrend. Analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals that past instances of ETH's RSI entering oversold territory, especially during downtrend breakouts, have consistently led to significant recoveries. Specifically, three out of four prior occurrences resulted in approximately 90% price pumps, while the fourth yielded a 40% pump. Extrapolating a 90% pump from the current approximate price of $2,764 positions Ethereum to reach the $5,000 target. Invalidation of this bullish scenario is projected if the price falls below $1,900, which is below current implied support levels.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   03 Dec 2025, 05:00 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:48 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   02 Jul 2026, 01:22 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. First prediction resolved

   02 Jul 2026, 01:22 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

6. Case evaluation completed

   02 Jul 2026, 01:22 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.