Bitcoin has just broken key technical levels for the first time this cycle. In this video, I break down what this means, why this cycle is unique, and what on-chain data and statistical probabilities tell us about potential downside risk. Understand how to prepare for both a correction or the start
1 extracted signal · 1 resolved · 0 still active
On-Chain Mind18 Nov 2025, 20:51 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The analysis of Bitcoin's price action suggests a potential bearish outlook, with key technical levels failing to hold support. The 90-day and 200-day moving averages, along with the short-term holder realized price, are all indicating a shift towards resistance. Historically, when Bitcoin breaks below critical support levels like the $90,000 to $75,000 range, it tends to experience significant downside. The volume profile indicates a lack of strong support between $80,000 and $90,000, suggesting a rapid descent if this level is breached. The current Z-score probability rates are dipping into negative territory, which historically signals the beginning of a bear market. However, the analysis also highlights that Bitcoin's current drawdown of -22% is mild compared to previous cycles, and the market may be at a critical juncture. The short-term holder cost basis breakdown suggests potential for further downside if these levels are not defended, with a target of $60,000 being a key level to watch.
AI-generated summary based on the source content.
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On-Chain Mind
Tahlil Plus independently records and evaluates public market predictions. Extraction may be AI-assisted and results follow the Tahlil Plus methodology. This information is not financial advice.