MSTR already entering a bear market? In this video, we break down the sharp divergence between Strategy and Bitcoin, the collapse in mNAV, and the major technical indicators now flashing bearish signals for the first time this cycle. We also explore the bullish scenarios, potential upside targets, a

AI-generated source summary

MSTR, a Bitcoin proxy, has underperformed BTC, its MNav has compressed. Preferred share instruments and broader credit markets may influence the mNAV. A bear market could see MSTR at $95-$101. However, a bull market, assuming Bitcoin reaches $130,000, could drive MSTR to $539-$1,068, depending on the mNAV and future dilution. The monthly vs yearly moving average cloud is rolling over, and the Alpha Flow indicator flashes a bearish signal. The 155-day VWAP cost bands show MSTR in a buying opportunity zone.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   07 Nov 2025, 23:00 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. First prediction resolved

   12 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

3. Case evaluation completed

   12 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.

4. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

5. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:47 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

6. Outcome tracking started

   02 Jul 2026, 02:12 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.