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AI-generated source summary

Polkadot (DOTUSD) has recently declined, reaching a key support area between $2.26 and $2.31, which corresponds to the 138.0% Fibonacci retracement level. This level is critical as it represents both a downside target and a significant support zone, derived from an overshooting B-wave in a potential bullish 'white scenario' and as the first ideal target for a third wave in the more bearish 'blue and orange scenarios'. The market has shown an expected bounce from this support. This upward movement is currently characterized as a three-wave structure, suggesting it is a corrective bounce rather than a strong bullish impulse. The first resistance area for this bounce is identified between $3.12 (38.2% retracement) and $4.21 (78.6% retracement) of the prior decline. While the 'white scenario' envisions a potential C-wave rally from this bounce towards an upper resistance zone of $6.60 to $10.57, the 'blue and orange scenarios' indicate a broader bearish outlook. In these bearish counts, the price has already completed wave two, and the current bounce is interpreted as a corrective wave four, preceding a further decline into wave five. Potential downside targets for this subsequent bearish movement are identified at $1.75 (161.80% extension), $1.43 (178.60% extension), and $1.116 (200.00% extension). For any bullish momentum to develop beyond a mere bounce, a clear five-wave impulse structure would be required. The swing low from Tuesday must hold to sustain the current corrective bounce prior to any further downside.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   07 Nov 2025, 06:21 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:48 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   18 Jul 2026, 15:58 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. First prediction resolved

   18 Jul 2026, 15:58 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

6. Case evaluation completed

   18 Jul 2026, 15:58 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.