Bitcoin is slipping toward $100K just as long-term holders dump 400,000 BTC into one of the largest distribution waves in history. In this episode Hurley unpacks why OG whales are selling into strength while global liquidity expands, and why macro investor Jordi Visser calls this Bitcoin’s “IPO mome

AI-generated source summary

The analysis discusses Bitcoin's recent price action, noting a decline towards $100,000, a level not seen in five months. Long-term holders have reportedly sold over 400,000 BTC in the last 30 days, marking a substantial distribution. The analysis questions whether this is a bear market entry or a final shakeout before a larger move. It notes that this month finished as the third-worst October in Bitcoin's history. Long-term holder selling pressure is evident. Despite the selling, Bitcoin remains above $100,000, representing an approximate 20% downturn from all-time highs. The largest long-term holder distribution is occurring, but Bitcoin's price has been resilient. The analyst questions whether this is a transfer of ownership as coins dormant for over a decade are now active. The analysis suggests a potential shift from early believers to global capital, similar to an IPO. It also highlights Bollinger Band showing that volatility has drained out of the system and a potential move can be ahead. A possible upward potential is near the 115k to 125k range where leveraged short positions have built up. Also mentions a strong correlation with M2 Money Supply offset by 80 days and is bullish for the next year.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   05 Nov 2025, 02:20 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:47 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   02 Jul 2026, 01:22 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. First prediction resolved

   02 Jul 2026, 01:22 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

6. Case evaluation completed

   02 Jul 2026, 01:22 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.