Adam Livingston provides a step-by-step framework for analyzing Bitcoin treasury equities with six inputs: BTC held, spot price, fully diluted shares, cash, debt, and market cap. We calculate NAV, M-NAV, and show why share prices can diverge from per-share Bitcoin value. Examples with Sequans and EM

AI-generated source summary

The analysis focuses on Bitcoin treasury equity firms, contrasting their Bitcoin holdings' net asset value (NAV) with their equity prices. It defines Bitcoin NAV per share, calculated as (Bitcoin held * spot price) / fully diluted shares, and mNAV, which adjusts for balance sheet leverage, calculated as Enterprise Value / Bitcoin NAV. An mNAV under 1.0 signifies that the equity's market price is below its Bitcoin holdings' value. SQNS and EMPD are analyzed with fresh numbers from September 22, 2025, revealing equities trading below their Bitcoin NAV. A dashboard is presented, highlighting the importance of verifying BTC holdings, fully diluted share count, cash, and debt, and calculating NAV and mNAV. The presenter highlights several key risks, which include NAV ratios under 1.0, dilution events, high financial costs, and market and regulatory news injecting volatility.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   26 Sept 2025, 19:40 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. First prediction resolved

   15 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

3. Case evaluation completed

   15 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.

4. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

5. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:47 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

6. Outcome tracking started

   02 Jul 2026, 02:14 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.