Bitcoin just surged to $118K, but how high can it really go from here? In this video, I break down the most important on-chain metrics—including long-term holder behaviour, my custom short-term risk score, and probability wave models—to assess whether this rally still has legs or if a cool-off is ne

AI-generated source summary

The analysis highlights Bitcoin's recent rally to $119,000, based on compressed volatility. It identifies the Long-Term Holder 30-day net position change as a critical metric, noting the surge in long-term holders to 15.4 million BTC, as a bullish indicator. The video mentions that green spikes typically mark accumulation during weakness, with long-term holders not selling. The analysis uses a short-term risk score, which has crossed the midpoint, as a DCA signal. A Z-score Probability Waves analysis places the +2 standard deviation band at $118,617 and the +3 band around $123,000. The video uses an MVRV ratio with sigma bands, setting the next realistic target to $140,000. If retail euphoria returns, the analysis considers cycle top lines, but the video says it is unlikely now. A strong bullish foundation with continued step ladder movements has been seen on the market.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   11 Jul 2025, 16:51 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. First prediction resolved

   25 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

3. Case evaluation completed

   25 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.

4. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

5. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:46 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

6. Outcome tracking started

   02 Jul 2026, 01:22 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.