The Trust Layer for Market Analysts

The speaker identifies three stages of a bear market for Bitcoin, using historical data from 2015-2020 and 2018. Stage 1, from October 2025 to February 2026, marks the initial decline after a high. Stage 2, from February 2026 to June 2026, is characterized by further drops and lower lows. Stage 3, from June 2026 to October 2026, is when the majority of investors recognize the bear market. The speaker notes that in past cycles, such as 2018, the market experienced significant drops (15-18%) after initial rallies, and expects similar behavior. They emphasize that sentiment shifts occur when price breaks previous lower lows. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin is currently in Stage 3 of a potential bear market, with key timeframes for potential lower lows identified in June and October 2026. The speaker's personal analysis suggests that the market sentiment often turns around when the majority incorrectly assumes a bullish trend, contrasting with their own view of a prolonged downtrend.