@jbcycles
YouTube
Avg. Quality
66
Success Rate
22.73
Analysis
22
Correct
5
Fail
15
Pending
0
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
SPX
Short Entry
6,939.4600
2026-01-18
22:16 UTC
Target
6,500.0000
Fail
7,000.0000
Risk/Reward
1 : 7
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The analysis indicates a complex market outlook rooted in cyclical patterns. The general market, represented by the SPX, is currently in a bullish phase of a 4-week cycle as of January 18th, but it lacks the expected upward momentum and has not shown a clear pullback. This presents two possibilities: either an inverted cycle leading to a significant downturn or a sideways consolidation preceding a strong bullish breakout. The analyst suggests that if robust bullish movement does not materialize soon, the bullish window may close, initiating a bearish phase. For BTCUSDT, despite a recent uptrend and higher low, the analysis predicts a substantial price drop to approximately 65,000, framing the current upward movement as a 'bear flag' likely concluding in February. This aligns with a bearish 4-week cycle outlook. Furthermore, VIX wavelet analysis supports a bearish scenario for the broader market, suggesting an impending correction. Long-term cycle analysis (10-week, 3.5-year, and 28/56-year cycles) for SPX places the market at the top of established trend channels, indicating a need for a significant correction to mid-5000s into the summer or fall of the current year, or potentially into late 2027, with a truly bearish phase anticipated from 2028. Historical analogies, such as the 1980 market pattern, also point to a correction in late February, while the 1999 analog suggests a rally. The overall sentiment emphasizes that a major correction is anticipated this year, but the immediate trajectory for this coming week remains uncertain, balancing between a potential breakdown and a sideways consolidation before a definitive move.