@EverythingMoney

YouTube

Avg. Quality

75

Success Rate

6.15

Analysis

65
Correct
4
Fail
28
Pending
22
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
CRWD
Short Entry 504.8200 2025-12-13 17:25 UTC
Target 240.0000 Fail 550.0000
Risk/Reward 1 : 6
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CRWD
Stocks
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Bear Market
The analysis focuses on fundamental valuation over market hype for three growth stocks. AppLovin (APP) is highlighted for its impressive past performance and strong operating margins but is deemed "not cheap" due to its high TTM P/E of 87. The inherent future growth is perceived as already factored into the current price, indicating high risk. CrowdStrike (CRWD) is recognized as an AI-native cybersecurity leader with robust cash flow generation ($1.1 billion TTM) despite reporting negative net income. However, its Price/FCF of 115.84 and P/S ratio of 28.02 are considered elevated. An intrinsic value analysis using a software tool, incorporating 10-year revenue growth projections (10-25%) and profit margins (25-35%), resulted in an estimated value range of $132.55 to $725.97. The speaker expressed interest only at prices "sub $250 at best," classifying the current price as significantly overvalued. Dutch Bros (BROS) is noted for its aggressive expansion plans and consistent same-store sales growth. Despite these positives, its P/E ratio of 124 is labeled "extremely expensive." The core message emphasizes that while growth narratives are compelling, the financial metrics must support the valuation. The speaker distinguishes between investing (based on understanding business fundamentals and intrinsic value) and speculating (chasing prices or headlines). He advocates for a disciplined, long-term approach to wealth building, urging investors to ignore market noise and focus on acquiring great businesses at favorable prices.
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