@parkevtatevosiancfa9544
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Avg. Quality
75
Success Rate
17.28
Analysis
544
Correct
94
Fail
283
Pending
167
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
SMCI
Short Entry
34.6950
2025-12-07
20:45 UTC
Target
26.5600
Fail
39.5000
Risk/Reward
1 : 2
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Supermicro Computer (SMCI) has experienced significant revenue growth, driven by increasing demand for AI-optimized data center technology and its liquid cooling solutions. Annual revenue surged from 5.2 billion in 2022 to 22 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period, reflecting an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 30% over a decade. The company is projected to maintain strong growth prospects for the next few years. Despite this revenue expansion, profitability metrics present a mixed picture. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) has fluctuated, averaging around 29% since 2022, peaking at 40%, then settling at 21%. Historically, the industry and SMCI's competitors like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, exhibit relatively thin profit margins, a trend expected to persist due to strong buyer negotiating power. The operating cash flow to sales ratio has been highly volatile, never exceeding 10% in the last decade, indicating that the business itself isn't exceptionally lucrative for a supplier. Negative cash flow periods occur when revenue grows rapidly, as the company invests heavily in inventory before customer payments are received; this is deemed a normal cycle for SMCI unless compounded by past financial reporting transparency issues, which the company has faced. Based on a proprietary DCF model, the intrinsic value per share is calculated at $26.56. Comparing this to the current market price of $34.23, the stock appears slightly overvalued. The forward P/E also suggests overvaluation given the company's margins and growth trajectory.