@thepatientinvestorr

YouTube

Avg. Quality

74

Success Rate

21.82

Analysis

110
Correct
24
Fail
39
Pending
47
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
NFLX
Long Entry 96.8400 2025-12-08 20:33 UTC
Target 173.4500 Fail 80.0000
Risk/Reward 1 : 5
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NFLX
Pending
Stocks
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Bull Market
The analysis evaluates Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and the potential acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). For Netflix, the speaker highlights subscriber growth to over 300 million by December 2024 and expanding profitability with net profit margins rising from 1.8% to 24%. However, revenue growth is decelerating from prior highs, currently around 10-15%. The trailing P/E ratio is 41x, and the forward P/E is approximately 32x. The speaker’s valuation model for Netflix, without the WBD deal, projects EPS growth of 20% for 2026-2028, followed by 15% for 2029-2030, and a P/E multiple contraction to 30x by 2030. This model yields a projected share price of $173.45 by 2030, representing a 73% upside or an 11.6% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The current share price is $100.24. The analysis suggests that to achieve a double in value over the next five years, the entry price should not exceed $87 per share. Regarding the potential WBD acquisition, the speaker expresses doubt about regulatory approval due to monopoly concerns. The enterprise value of the proposed acquisition is $82.7 billion, funded by cash, acquisition debt, studio debt, and equity consideration. The valuation of WBD before synergies is 25.2x EBITDA, which the speaker deems excessive given WBD's flat EBITDA growth. Even after accounting for $2.5 billion in anticipated synergies, the valuation stands at 14.3x EBITDA, which is still considered high. The combined entity would have an enterprise value of $547 billion and an EBITDA of $23.5 billion, resulting in a combined EV/EBITDA multiple of 23x, based on 2027 estimates. The speaker believes Netflix overpaid for WBD and that the deal is a long-term bet with impacts not expected until 2029-2030, assuming it even closes in 2027.
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