@TradeConfident
YouTube
Avg. Quality
67
Success Rate
31.50
Analysis
200
Correct
63
Fail
117
Pending
20
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
BTCUSDT
Short Entry
90,305.3000
2025-12-11
02:09 UTC
Target
75,000.0000
Fail
110,000.0000
Risk/Reward
1 : 1
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The analysis outlines a strategy for profiting during a Bitcoin bear market by leveraging inverse Bitcoin ETFs such as SBIT. The speaker notes Bitcoin's current market state, characterized by a probable lower high formation and a developing bear flag, with the Market Cycle Highs and Lows indicator signaling elevated greed. Historical data from past Bitcoin Halving cycles suggests bear markets typically commence 80 weeks after a halving event and after two consecutive weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, conditions which are currently met. Bitcoin has recently experienced a decline of approximately 32% from its high, making the bearish outlook plausible. The target for Bitcoin is projected at 75,000 USD. To capitalize on this, traders are advised to allocate a small portion (e.g., 5-8% of their portfolio) to SBIT, a 2x leveraged inverse ETF. This allocation, potentially split into multiple entries, should occur when the Pro Trade Manager indicator displays red dots, signaling seller control, or when the Market Cycle Highs and Lows indicator registers extreme greed or max euphoria. For instance, a 20% drop in Bitcoin could yield approximately a 56% gain in SBIT. This hedging strategy aims to mitigate losses from a depreciating altcoin portfolio while generating profits from Bitcoin's downward price action. The analysis posits that this method offers a safer alternative to derivatives or futures trading for profiting in a bear market. An upward movement in Bitcoin exceeding 110,000 USD would invalidate the bearish prediction.