@parkevtatevosiancfa9544
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Avg. Quality
75
Success Rate
17.10
Analysis
544
Correct
93
Fail
275
Pending
176
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
PEP
Long Entry
149.1000
2025-12-11
21:45 UTC
Target
203.0800
Fail
122.8000
Risk/Reward
1 : 2
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The analysis of PepsiCo (PEP) reveals a historical revenue growth from $63 billion to $92.4 billion over the past decade, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. This growth rate is considered indicative of future top-line expansion. However, the company's profitability and efficiency metrics have shown declines. The return on invested capital has decreased from approximately 14% in 2016 to 9.9% in the most recent trailing 12-month period. Similarly, the operating cash flow to sales ratio has steadily declined from 17% to 12.7% over the past decade. These deteriorating performance metrics have led to investor activism, advocating for operational restructuring, particularly in bottling investments, to improve asset efficiency and profitability margins, aiming for an asset-light model akin to competitors. Despite these challenges, the stock's current valuation indicates a potential buying opportunity. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17, which is lower than historical averages and its January 2024 level. The forward price-to-operating cash flow (P/OCF) ratio is 13.3, also reflecting a discounted valuation compared to historical norms and rival companies like Coca-Cola. A proprietary discounted cash flow (DCF) model, adjusted for an increased risk profile due to operational headwinds, estimates an intrinsic value of $203.08 per share, against a current market price of $144.50. This suggests an undervaluation, making PepsiCo an attractive long-term investment for dividend stock investors looking beyond 2026, despite elevated operational risks.