The analysis reviews SOFI stock, noting a prior bullish stance for nearly two years during which the share price approximately tripled. In October, the stock was downgraded to a 'hold' from a 'buy' when it traded near $30 per share, citing stretched valuation and a weakening macro economy in the United States. As of December, the stock is trading at approximately $26.83 per share, representing a roughly 10% decline since the October downgrade. Despite this decline, the speaker assesses the stock as still being overvalued, with a calculated intrinsic value per share of $17.91. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is considered fairly valued to slightly overvalued. The broader economic outlook is described as deteriorating since October, with data indicating a slowing job market, decreased hiring activity, and businesses tightening their financial operations. Early holiday sales figures from Black Friday and Cyber Monday reveal a year-over-year decrease in unit sales, although total spending is up due to inflationary price increases. This unsustainable economic trajectory, characterized by rising prices and declining unit sales, is projected to lead to a further economic slowdown. Such a slowdown would reduce demand for cashiers, warehouse personnel, and transportation, indicating a broader economic contraction. Given these macroeconomic headwinds and the current overvaluation relative to its intrinsic value, the SOFI stock is predicted to trend downwards towards its fair value by 2026.