@parkevtatevosiancfa9544

YouTube

Avg. Quality

75

Success Rate

17.10

Analysis

544
Correct
93
Fail
275
Pending
176
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Fail
AVGO
Long Entry 359.9000 2025-12-14 17:45 UTC
Target 374.1400 Fail 330.0000 In 3 Days
Risk/Reward 1 : 0
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Final PnL
-8.31%
P/L:
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AVGO
Fail
Stocks
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Range Market
The analysis evaluates Broadcom (AVGO) following a 10% post-earnings price decline. Fundamental data shows Q4 revenue reached $18.0 billion, up 28% year-over-year, with AI semiconductor revenue surging 74%. However, the analyst identifies two critical risks: a shift from an asset-light model to in-house manufacturing, which increases capital expenditure, and a projected 100-basis-point gross margin contraction due to a higher mix of lower-margin AI revenue. Using a proprietary Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, the analysis calculates an intrinsic value of $374.14. With the current price at approximately $363.38, the stock is considered fairly valued but lacks the margin of safety required for a buy rating. The forward P/E of 43 is noted as being significantly elevated compared to the historical average of 15. The analysis concludes with a reiterated 'Hold/Market Perform' rating over a 12-month horizon, expecting the stock to trade within a range as the market absorbs the structural changes in the business model.
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