Novo Nordisk (NVO) is discussed in relation to its recent trial results for Alzheimer's treatment, which did not meet expectations, leading to a 6% drop in the stock price to $44.77. The failed trials were previously described as a 'lottery ticket' by the management, implying low probability but high upside. It multiplies the potential success probability with possible reward and takes it into account. Investors factor these probabilities into stock valuations. The intrinsic value is around $87.74. A potential catalyst for stock turnaround could be the release of the oral pill weight loss treatment, hopefully, next year.