The video analyzes the impact of a US government shutdown on Bitcoin, comparing the current situation to shutdowns in 2013 and 2018. During government shutdowns, the Labor and Commerce departments data is unavailable, the Federal Reserve loses important economic indicators for decision making. It says that Bitcoin never shuts down due to its decentralized nature. The analysis suggests that the current macroeconomic environment of slowing global growth and persistent inflation creates a stagflationary risk. Despite a potential short-term drop due to a prolonged shutdown, Bitcoin's role as a safe haven and its adoption by institutions could drive its price higher, the speaker estimates a target of 137568 as bitcoin is going for price discovery.