The analysis suggests that Bitcoin, currently trading around $112,000, will experience a bullish trend with a target of $120,000, but faces a TGA refill of USD 850 bn to federal deposits that may cause high volatility and further test the downside and eventually a squeeze above 120000 . The downside will be invalidated if BTC goes below USD 110000. The analysis is grounded on the fundamental thesis that, despite immediate downside, the US government's high expenses are not sustainable.